PECOTA 2008 Projected MLB Standings Redux - Yankees are still #1

I'm sure all 12 of the loyal NYYSI readers remember this blog post when I pointed out that Baseball Prospectus' infamous PECOTA projections had the AL East Shaping up like this:

American League, ranked by projected 2008 record

East	W	L	RS	RA
New York Yankees	97	65	880	727
Boston Red Sox	91	71	838	746
Tampa Bay Rays	89	73	785	714
Toronto Blue Jays	79	83	768	772
Baltimore Orioles	66	96	746	885

Well, now BP has been kind enough to point me in the direction of a Google spreadsheet showing how their projections have fared since 2003. Obviously, any stat geek will tell you that isn't exactly a huge sample size, but it isn't anything to sneeze at.

As the much-smarter-than-me Nate Silver points out:

Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003    5.91 wins
2004    7.71 wins
2005    5.14 wins
2006    4.94 wins
2007    4.31 wins

Basically, PECOTA is getting closer and closer to being "deadly accurate" as they claim on the cover of their yearly baseball book. That is good news for us diehard Yankee fans/stat geeks/ computer worshippers. By now we all know that PECOTA is projecting the Yankees to be the best team in all of baseball.

Now lets take a look at how well PECOTA has predicted Yankee win totals since 2003:

YEAR	PECOTA	ACTUAL	DIFFERENCE
2003	109	101	-8
2004	106	101	-5
2005	95	95	0
2006	94	97	+3
2007	93	94	+1

AVG: -1.8

The lesson here? When all of the MLB preview magazines come out with their "ballsy" picks featuring the Yankees finishing in third in the AL East, don't get up in arms. Simply take heart that our friend, the lovable computer PECOTA, says good things are in store for the 2008 New York Yankees.

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