American League, ranked by projected 2008 record
|New York Yankees||97||65||880||727|
|Boston Red Sox||91||71||838||746|
|Tampa Bay Rays||89||73||785||714|
|Toronto Blue Jays||79||83||768||772|
Well, now BP has been kind enough to point me in the direction of a Google spreadsheet showing how their projections have fared since 2003. Obviously, any stat geek will tell you that isn't exactly a huge sample size, but it isn't anything to sneeze at.
As the much-smarter-than-me Nate Silver points out:
Basically, PECOTA is getting closer and closer to being "deadly accurate" as they claim on the cover of their yearly baseball book. That is good news for us diehard Yankee fans/stat geeks/ computer worshippers. By now we all know that PECOTA is projecting the Yankees to be the best team in all of baseball.
Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:2003 5.91 wins
2004 7.71 wins
2005 5.14 wins
2006 4.94 wins
2007 4.31 wins
Now lets take a look at how well PECOTA has predicted Yankee win totals since 2003:
|PECOTA ||ACTUAL ||DIFFERENCE |
|2003 ||109 ||101 ||-8 |
|2004||106 ||101 ||-5 |
|2005||95 ||95 ||0 |
|2006||94 ||97 ||+3 |
|2007||93 ||94||+1 |
The lesson here? When all of the MLB preview magazines come out with their "ballsy" picks featuring the Yankees finishing in third in the AL East, don't get up in arms. Simply take heart that our friend, the lovable computer PECOTA, says good things are in store for the 2008 New York Yankees.
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