Sunday, March 2, 2008

PECOTA Projected Standings - Yankees are # 1

UPDATE: Projected standings have been revised

American League, ranked by projected 2008 record

East W L RS RA
New York Yankees 97 65 882 727
Boston Red Sox 91 71 837 738
Tampa Bay Rays 89 73 785 714
Toronto Blue Jays 79 83 768 775
Baltimore Orioles 65 97 746 889

I guess it is getting a little carried away tracking this so closely, but what else is there to do in February.

Original Post (2/16/08):

Its an exciting day as the first round of PECOTA projected standings have been released. To my surprise, PECOTA projects the Yankees as the best team in the land and finishing with 96 wins. Check out PECOTA's projected AL standings (courtesy of Nate Silver over at Baseball Prospectus:

American League, ranked by projected 2008 record

East W L RS
New York Yankees 96 66 885
Boston Red Sox 93 69 840
Toronto Blue Jays 83 79 766
Tampa Bay Rays 82 80 788
Baltimore Orioles 69 93 742
Central W L RS
Cleveland Indians 89 73 835
Detroit Tigers 89 73 842
Chicago White Sox 77 85 780
Minnesota Twins 74 88 709
Kansas City Royals 71 91 741
West W L RS
Los Angeles Angels 89 73 810
Oakland Athletics 78 84 732
Texas Rangers 74 88 788
Seattle Mariners 73 89 691

I'm gonna go ahead and blame this guy


and lets take a look at this quote from Papelbon yesterday:
"If we're not the team to beat," Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon said Thursday, "I'd like to know who is. I think that our No. 1 thing is to stay healthy. If we do that, I don't know who can really compete with us."

Obviously, PECOTA is just a computer running projections, but considering what they are showing, maybe Paps shouldn't so damn cocky? An attitude like that is why people all over America are starting to hate the Red Sox as much as they hate the Yankees.

As a final note - I didn't post the NL projected standings, but PECOTA also projects the Mets with 96 wins as the best team in the NL. Subway Series 2008 anyone?

Link to PECOTA 2008 MLB projected standings (paid content)

Link to Nate Silver mini-analysis of projected standings
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