Its the most wonderful time of the year (for stat-heads)

Uh oh! You know baseball projection season is upon us when I break out the clip-art of the guy hugging his computer - a stat-head after my own heart!

Just to whet your appetite for the 2009 season, here is a list of the various projections systems that I would put some stock into:

PECOTA - Known to be DEADLY ACCURATE - Nate Silver's baby. Still the king of the hill - subscription-based so you cheap folks should move on... (Not available until February '09)

Bill James Handbook Projections - The grand-daddy of all baseball stat guys. (Link is to fangraphs.com which offers a free version of the projections in Bill James' book on the player pages. If you are a true stat-head, you will want to buy Bill James' book.)

Marcel - The self-proclaimed "most basic" projection system. Proven to be nearly as accurate as the "deadly accurate" PECOTA. (Link is to fangraphs.com which hosts Marcel's projections).

CHONE - the earliest projection system to predict the Rays breakout season in 2008

ZiPS - Finds its home at Baseball Think Factory and is another well-respected projection system. In the past has stacked up nicely with PECOTA.

CAIRO - I had to include this relatively new system since it was designed by SG at my favorite Yankee blog, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Over at RLYW he has an explanation of the need for his projection system. And yes, it is named after famed utility infielder Miguel Cairo.

Some other systems that I am not as familar with, but are well-known - ESPN Fantasy, RotoWire, RotoTimes. I believe those are all paid services.

Predicting the human element of sports is impossible, so no projection system will ever be perfect. However, these projection systems are great at "discovering" an unexpected player or team. Vegas Watch (a sports gambling themed blog) regularly uses these projections system to figure out the best action to take at the various casinos. I use them to make informed decisions during my fantasy baseball draft and usually end up at the top of the standings because of it.

Talk about it in the NYYSI Forums! Read the full post, after the jump

PECOTA 2008 Projected MLB Standings Redux - Yankees are still #1

I'm sure all 12 of the loyal NYYSI readers remember this blog post when I pointed out that Baseball Prospectus' infamous PECOTA projections had the AL East Shaping up like this:

American League, ranked by projected 2008 record

East	W	L	RS	RA
New York Yankees	97	65	880	727
Boston Red Sox	91	71	838	746
Tampa Bay Rays	89	73	785	714
Toronto Blue Jays	79	83	768	772
Baltimore Orioles	66	96	746	885

Well, now BP has been kind enough to point me in the direction of a Google spreadsheet showing how their projections have fared since 2003. Obviously, any stat geek will tell you that isn't exactly a huge sample size, but it isn't anything to sneeze at.

As the much-smarter-than-me Nate Silver points out:

Overall, though, the PECOTA projections have tended to get more and more accurate over time. The average error in our won-loss projections since 2003 has been as follows:

2003    5.91 wins
2004    7.71 wins
2005    5.14 wins
2006    4.94 wins
2007    4.31 wins

Basically, PECOTA is getting closer and closer to being "deadly accurate" as they claim on the cover of their yearly baseball book. That is good news for us diehard Yankee fans/stat geeks/ computer worshippers. By now we all know that PECOTA is projecting the Yankees to be the best team in all of baseball.

Now lets take a look at how well PECOTA has predicted Yankee win totals since 2003:

YEAR	PECOTA	ACTUAL	DIFFERENCE
2003	109	101	-8
2004	106	101	-5
2005	95	95	0
2006	94	97	+3
2007	93	94	+1

AVG: -1.8

The lesson here? When all of the MLB preview magazines come out with their "ballsy" picks featuring the Yankees finishing in third in the AL East, don't get up in arms. Simply take heart that our friend, the lovable computer PECOTA, says good things are in store for the 2008 New York Yankees.

Talk about it in the NYYSI Forums! Read the full post, after the jump

Deadly Accurate NYYSIOTA Statistical Projections

Since we have a large enough sample size in Spring Training games and Spring Training games are always an EXACT indicator of regular season play we can make the following projections of the presumed starting lineup:

Johnny Damon: .333/.333/.556 with 0 HRs.
A disappointing OBP for a leadoff hitter, Damon will draw exactly zero walks this year. He will hit for power yet it will be all off doubles as he will hit zero HRs.

Derek Jeter: .214/.313/.286 with 0 HRs
We can expect a horrible year for Jeter, below replacement level. Indeed, he will hug the Mendoza line and hit for no power whatsoever.

Bobby Abreu: .533/.563/.733 with 40 HRs
Wow, would you look at that, a monster of a slugging year for Abreu. He will also destroy the single season batting average record by hitting .533. Yet, his trademark patience will be gone only drawing a handful of walks all year

Alex Rodriguez: .444/.615/.889 with 65 HRs
A-Rod will have a record breaking year. He will break the record for single season slugging percentage. He will also pass Roger Maris' mark of 61 HRs making him the single season non-steroid HR record holder. Amazing!

Hideki Matsui:
He will spend the whole year on the DL. A tough break for the former Iron Man.

Jorge Posada: .000/.000/.000 with 0 HRs
Jorge will play as bad as you can get statistically for the whole year. In all his at-bats he will never get a single hit, walk, or HR. A 7 year old would have a better year at the plate than Posada will have in 2008. His new contract will go down as the worst contract in history.

Jason Giambi: .333/.333/.667 with 45 HRs
Giambi will actually manage to stay healthy all year, a first for him since 2003. He will put up a great number of HRs but his eye will deteriorate drawing zero walks the entire year.

Robinson Cano: .500/.500/.563 with 0 HR
Cano will actually hit exactly .500 for the season! Incredible! He characteristically will be too anxious at the plate drawing zero walks, but who cares when you're batting .500!

Melky Cabrera: .417/.500/.583 with 0 HR
Melky will be the fourth Yankee starter to hit over the .400 mark. It's a good thing we didn't give him away in a trade for Johan Santana!

Also, notably Shelley Duncan and Wilson Betemit will both hit around 53 HRs this year in limited plate appearances. Unfortunately, based on our Spring Training record so far we will go a miserable 70-92 this season and miss the playoffs by quite a margin. Joe Girardi will be fired after only one season and Brian Cashman's contract will not be renewed. Read the full post, after the jump