UPDATE-ALCS Game 6 - POSTPONED

Update (10/24 6:00 PM): Word from LoHud Yankees is that ALCS game 6 has been postponed. Tickets for game 6 will likely be honored for tomorrow night's makeup game.

UPDATE (10/24 9:00 AM): The latest update from Steve provides some good news. The threat of delay and postponement is still "high," but there is a gleam of hope based on the latest observations:

A slow moving cold front will being advancing on the Bronx at about the time when the game is expected to start. This cold front is expected to have an extensive line of showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Periods of rain is expected through Mid Night before tapering off to showers through 1 AM and drying out thereafter. Winds will be from the south around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will slowly fall from the lower 60’s into the upper 50’s.

Breaks in the rain may develop due to strong mesoscale lifting, which MAY give the Yankees a shot at playing this game. This will have to be monitored this evening for that potential.

Game Delay Potential: HIGH: A wall of rain is currently expected to move into the Bronx at about the start of the game. The game may start on time depending on the speed of the rain shield, but a coverage and intensity of the rainfall will likely force a delay.

Game Postponement:HIGH: The rain is not expected to taper off at this time until after mid night over the Bronx, which will likely force a postponement of the game. There is potential that strong mesoscale forcing (strong thunderstorms for example) may cause precipitation to dry out over the Bronx and giving the Yankees a window to play the game. This situation will have to be monitored by the minute this evening.

Steve mentioned that if anyone wants a more detailed (and technical) "mesoscale" discussion, you can check his new post, detailing how tonight's rain event in NYC will unfold. As the updates come in, we'll update this post.

UPDATE (10/23 9:00 PM): Steve from NYNJPAWeather.com has checked in with the following:

I’m getting a better feel on how the rain will move through the Bronx for tomorrow night. A break in the steady rainfall can be expected in the afternoon, but don’t let this fool you. As the cold front approaches in the evening, waves of steady light to moderate rainfall will move into the Bronx by around 7 to 8 PM and continue on through the evening. The rain is currently expected to end over the Bronx by around 10 to 11 PM. This rain will be heavy and likely will impact the ability to play this game.

Sunday is still looking dry and very comfortable and I would suggest scheduling the game on Sunday rather than on Saturday night.

With the lack of urgency to play the game (better weather Sunday, World Series not starting until Wednesday), Steve is probably right in assessment here. However, we should all keep in mind that exactly one week ago we all woke up to the same kinds of forecasts, and the game was played without a problem.

Somehow we feel like we have been down this road before. Before games 1 and 2 of the ALCS, weather forecasters had dire predictions of washouts and scheduling nightmares. Somehow, the games were played, and everyone was left ridiculing the people who get paid to predict the atmospheric conditions. It sucks that we have to tell you this, but Saturday's forecast is just as bad as the forecasts for games 1 and 2 of the ALCS. Steve DiMartino of NYNYPAWeather.com has developed his NSI Game Day Weather Forecast a bit early this time, and it is a rainy one:

The Yankees have not been able to dodge the impacts of rain all year, so why would the sixth game of the ALCS be any different?

A strong cold front combined with a tropical disturbance will produce periods of heavy rain through Saturday night. Winds will be from the south and southwest around 15 to 25 mph, which will be blowing out to right field. Temperatures will hold in the mid 60’s through the evening before quickly falling off into the 50’s by around mid night.

Game Delay Potential: HIGH: A wall of rain is currently expected to move into the Bronx at about the start of the game. The game may start on time depending on the speed of the rain shield, but a coverage and intensity of the rainfall will likely force a delay.

Game Postponement: HIGH: The rain is not expected to taper off at this time until after mid night over the Bronx, which will likely force a postponement of the game. There is potential that the line of heavy rainfall may “bow” eastward and push the rainfall through the region faster than expected, however this will have to be determined on Saturday afternoon to be certain. The timing of the cold front will be the key to this forecast.

Regardless of the timing of the cold front on Saturday night, strong high pressure will build into the New York City metropolitan area for Sunday with clearing skies, dry conditions, and near normal temperatures in the lower 60’s. A perfect day for the sixth game of the ALCS.

We all know by now how quickly the weather conditions can fluctuate, so we will update this post whenever Steve has something to add. As of now, we are once again left watching the radar in the Bronx, instead of getting ready for the extremely exciting, high-pressure games that are set to ensue. Retractable roof, anyone?