UPDATE-ALCS Game 6 - POSTPONED

Update (10/24 6:00 PM): Word from LoHud Yankees is that ALCS game 6 has been postponed. Tickets for game 6 will likely be honored for tomorrow night's makeup game.

UPDATE (10/24 9:00 AM): The latest update from Steve provides some good news. The threat of delay and postponement is still "high," but there is a gleam of hope based on the latest observations:

A slow moving cold front will being advancing on the Bronx at about the time when the game is expected to start. This cold front is expected to have an extensive line of showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Periods of rain is expected through Mid Night before tapering off to showers through 1 AM and drying out thereafter. Winds will be from the south around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will slowly fall from the lower 60’s into the upper 50’s.

Breaks in the rain may develop due to strong mesoscale lifting, which MAY give the Yankees a shot at playing this game. This will have to be monitored this evening for that potential.

Game Delay Potential: HIGH: A wall of rain is currently expected to move into the Bronx at about the start of the game. The game may start on time depending on the speed of the rain shield, but a coverage and intensity of the rainfall will likely force a delay.

Game Postponement:HIGH: The rain is not expected to taper off at this time until after mid night over the Bronx, which will likely force a postponement of the game. There is potential that strong mesoscale forcing (strong thunderstorms for example) may cause precipitation to dry out over the Bronx and giving the Yankees a window to play the game. This situation will have to be monitored by the minute this evening.

Steve mentioned that if anyone wants a more detailed (and technical) "mesoscale" discussion, you can check his new post, detailing how tonight's rain event in NYC will unfold. As the updates come in, we'll update this post.

UPDATE (10/23 9:00 PM): Steve from NYNJPAWeather.com has checked in with the following:

I’m getting a better feel on how the rain will move through the Bronx for tomorrow night. A break in the steady rainfall can be expected in the afternoon, but don’t let this fool you. As the cold front approaches in the evening, waves of steady light to moderate rainfall will move into the Bronx by around 7 to 8 PM and continue on through the evening. The rain is currently expected to end over the Bronx by around 10 to 11 PM. This rain will be heavy and likely will impact the ability to play this game.

Sunday is still looking dry and very comfortable and I would suggest scheduling the game on Sunday rather than on Saturday night.

With the lack of urgency to play the game (better weather Sunday, World Series not starting until Wednesday), Steve is probably right in assessment here. However, we should all keep in mind that exactly one week ago we all woke up to the same kinds of forecasts, and the game was played without a problem.

Somehow we feel like we have been down this road before. Before games 1 and 2 of the ALCS, weather forecasters had dire predictions of washouts and scheduling nightmares. Somehow, the games were played, and everyone was left ridiculing the people who get paid to predict the atmospheric conditions. It sucks that we have to tell you this, but Saturday's forecast is just as bad as the forecasts for games 1 and 2 of the ALCS. Steve DiMartino of NYNYPAWeather.com has developed his NSI Game Day Weather Forecast a bit early this time, and it is a rainy one:

The Yankees have not been able to dodge the impacts of rain all year, so why would the sixth game of the ALCS be any different?

A strong cold front combined with a tropical disturbance will produce periods of heavy rain through Saturday night. Winds will be from the south and southwest around 15 to 25 mph, which will be blowing out to right field. Temperatures will hold in the mid 60’s through the evening before quickly falling off into the 50’s by around mid night.

Game Delay Potential: HIGH: A wall of rain is currently expected to move into the Bronx at about the start of the game. The game may start on time depending on the speed of the rain shield, but a coverage and intensity of the rainfall will likely force a delay.

Game Postponement: HIGH: The rain is not expected to taper off at this time until after mid night over the Bronx, which will likely force a postponement of the game. There is potential that the line of heavy rainfall may “bow” eastward and push the rainfall through the region faster than expected, however this will have to be determined on Saturday afternoon to be certain. The timing of the cold front will be the key to this forecast.

Regardless of the timing of the cold front on Saturday night, strong high pressure will build into the New York City metropolitan area for Sunday with clearing skies, dry conditions, and near normal temperatures in the lower 60’s. A perfect day for the sixth game of the ALCS.

We all know by now how quickly the weather conditions can fluctuate, so we will update this post whenever Steve has something to add. As of now, we are once again left watching the radar in the Bronx, instead of getting ready for the extremely exciting, high-pressure games that are set to ensue. Retractable roof, anyone?

Read the full post, after the jump

UPDATED: NSI Gameday Weather 10/17/09 - ALCS Game 2 - Rain Will Likely Prevent The Game From Being Played

Post-Mortem Update (Sunday 10/18 - 2:00 PM): Many of you are probably wondering how a five-hour game was played without any problem when such dire forecasts such as Steve's were issued. Here is Steve's explanation:

You should thank your friends in Boston! Well, not the people, but the high pressure over New England had strengthen due to an under-forecasted jet streak around Quebec. The high got stronger, thus pushing drier (relatively) air into the Bronx, the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, and northern New Jersey. The result in the end kept much of the rain south of Yankee stadium and over central New Jersey, were the rain was persistent and heavy all night.

Whatever the reason, I think we're all pretty happy that the game was played.

Update (5:30 PM): Steve is still very pessimistic about the chances of playing baseball in the Bronx tonight:

So far no changes to the forecast. Rain will continue to spread through the Bronx and become heavy at times.

Taking a look at the radar below, Steve is right. It doesn't look good. A delay at the onset of this game is pointless. MLB needs to decide whether they should risk starting the game with the high possibility of not being able to finish, or just postpone it. The conditions are only going to worsen, so a delay will be the wrong call. As it turns out, both managers and MLB will meet about the weather at 7 PM, according to Sam Borden.

Update (2:45 PM): Earlier today, during his chat, Steve mentioned the following that could be a gleam of hope for tonight's game being played:

If I was MLB right now, I'd pray for a STRONG mesoscale banding over northern New Jersey so the sinking air will kill precipitation over the Bronx. Otherwise, this weekend is not going to be favorable for baseball.

He further elaborated with the following:

If that banding develops, and I'm not saying that it 100% will, but if it does, then there is a chance (say 15%) that the rain will be light enough to play through this evening. The heavier and more concentrated the rain develops over northeastern New Jersey, the better chance for this to happen in the Bronx.

As of now, the rain still isn't pushing into the NYC area. The coastal storm is still expected to get cranking and dump rain on the Bronx, but until it does so, baseball will be played as planned. From reading Steve's comments above, there is at least a chance. We wouldn't feel comfortable lowering the postponement or delay status from "high," but there is a better chance of playing this game than there was this morning.

Previous post follows:

As expected, the lull between the two early season Nor'Easters allowed the Yankees to take a 1-0 ALCS lead on Friday night. Unfortunately, the rain returns today and will most likely cause a weather postponement for ALCS Game 2. On hand as always is Steve DiMartino of NYNJPAWeather.com with the official forecast:

A strong coastal low is developing off the Delaware coast this afternoon and will move through the New Jersey coastal waters tonight. This coastal low is going to produce moderate to heavy rain over the Bronx tonight with a strong northeast wind around 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will be in the lower 40’s.

Game Delay Potential: HIGH: I can already see how MLB will try to play this, expect a lengthy delay as the rain rolls into the Bronx.

Game Postponement:HIGH: The rain will only get heavier as the evening continues. The combination of heavy rain and strong winds will likely prevent this game from being played.

If you are traveling to the game, it would behoove you to keep abreast of the situation all day. We will try to update when necessary but this is probably one of the easiest postponements to predict of the entire season. If we were traveling from outside of the 5 boroughs, we probably wouldn't bother heading to the game.

Hopefully the rain will subside by the end of the weekend, and the word is that the potential makeup game would be in the late afternoon on Sunday . However, some weather models are indicating that the rain is going to stick around all day on Sunday as well, putting that makeup time at risk. An ALCS weather nightmare is upon us and we'll just have to hope it doesn't affect the Yankees chances to advance to the World Series.

In other news, we forgot to post Steve's wind map in yesterday's game day weather post. As it turns out, his wind prediction was spot on and actually affected the game. Vlad Guerrero and Robinson Cano both had home runs taken away from them by the strong winds that were blowing in. If by some miracle, tonight's game is played, the winds will be similar:

Read the full post, after the jump

UPDATE: NSI Game Day Weather Forecast 9/11/09 - Jeter and The Yankees Set For A Battle With Rain, Orioles

Update (9/11 - 6:15 PM):

This comes via Steve of NYNJPAWeather.com:

The Bronx is currently between two bands of light to moderate rainfall. As the evening continues, these bands will lift north and west, eventually moving over Yankee Stadium. Expect periods of rain, on and off through the game with delays at times. No other changes in the forecast will be needed.

I think the Yankees will try very hard to get this game in no matter how long it takes.

Update (9/11 - 5:00 PM):

I'm no meteorologist like Steve, but the radar seems to be drying out:



I wouldn't be surprised at all if the game started without a delay. If you are a hardcore fan, you should head up to the stadium. If you don't care for sitting in very unpleasant weather conditions, stay home.

Update (9/11 - 2:30 PM):

Steve has checked in with an update, and it is BAAAAAAAAD news:

The coastal low is expected to now stall over central New Jersey through tonight, which is bad news for those going to the game tonight. Moisture is being driven right into the Bronx from the Atlantic at almost all levels of the atmosphere, which will keep the rain threat alive through tonight. As a result, waves of rain will continue to move into Bronx this evening, some of this rain will be heavy at times, which will likely make playing conditions very difficult if not impossible. The wind is also going to become an issue as a stiff easterly wind is expected to range from 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. This wind is going to blow in towards home plate, which will have a significant impact on any fly balls or pop ups. Temperatures will hold in the mid 60’s through the game.

Game Delay Potential: High: Waves of showers are expected over the Bronx this evening, which will lead to potentially long delays in the game.

Game Postponement: Moderate: Rain will be a constant threat through this evening and playing conditions are going to be significantly impacted. Logic will dictate that this game should be postponed, however the schedule may force the Yankees to find a way to play this game tonight as the one off day the Yankees did have will be used to play a rained out game against the Angels. So while the conditions clearly point to a postponement, the Yankees may have no choice but to find a way to play at least 5 innings before calling it a night.

Can't be much worse of an update than that.

This morning's post (with speculation about makeup dates) follows :

Thousands of people who swarmed StubHub for tickets following Jeter's record-tying single on Wednesday night probably don't want to hear this, but there is plenty of rain in this evening's forecast.

As always, Steve from NYNJPAWeather.com is on hand to provide us with the pertinent details. The forecast seems grim, but Steve believes they'll play the game. We will update this post throughout the day if anything changes.

A strong coastal low will slowly exit the region by this evening, which will leave lingering showers over the Bronx through the game after a drenching rain that fell through most of today. Field conditions will be significantly impacted by the rainfall, however the heaviest rainfall will be finished by the start of the game. Winds will back from the east to the north around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, especially at the start of the game. Temperatures hold in the lower 60’s through the game.

Game Delay Potential: High: With a constant threat of showers rotating through the Bronx through at least 8 PM, there will be a high potential for scattered showers to produce a lengthy delay of game.

Game Postponement: Low: While conditions will not be best for baseball, I think that unless this storm unexpectedly stalls off the coast, that the steady rain will be over for the Bronx by the time the game starts. However, I am keeping the threat for a postponement at low (suggesting a possibility of postponement) due to the conditions of the field being significantly impacted from the heavy rain through the day.

Series versus O’s: Showers will continue to linger over the Bronx through early Saturday afternoon, however as the afternoon wares on, drier conditions can be expected. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with a north wind around 5 to 10 mph. On Sunday, high pressure will take hold with clearing skies, a northwest wind around 5 to 10 mph, and temperatures in the mid 70’s through the game.

Rest of the Home Stand: Strong high pressure will take hold by Sunday night and remain in control through Wednesday. Optimal playing conditions are expected for the remainder of the home stand.

Wind Direction This Evening

If tonight's game is postponed, people who have spent hundreds of dollars on the secondary market to see Derek Jeter surpass Lou Gehrig on the Yankees hit list will be out of luck. The teams will have to make up the game since every Yankees game still has home field implications.

However, tickets for tonight's potentially postponed game would be valid for a makeup game which won't happen until Sunday at the earliest (FOX has an exclusive window on Saturday afternoon). There is a good chance that Jeter will have gotten a hit by then, meaning those people spent a lot of money to see a meaningless September game against the Orioles. Let's all just hope the rain ends in time for the game to be played this evening.

Read the full post, after the jump