Saturday, October 17, 2009

UPDATED: NSI Gameday Weather 10/17/09 - ALCS Game 2 - Rain Will Likely Prevent The Game From Being Played

Post-Mortem Update (Sunday 10/18 - 2:00 PM): Many of you are probably wondering how a five-hour game was played without any problem when such dire forecasts such as Steve's were issued. Here is Steve's explanation:
You should thank your friends in Boston! Well, not the people, but the high pressure over New England had strengthen due to an under-forecasted jet streak around Quebec. The high got stronger, thus pushing drier (relatively) air into the Bronx, the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, and northern New Jersey. The result in the end kept much of the rain south of Yankee stadium and over central New Jersey, were the rain was persistent and heavy all night.
Whatever the reason, I think we're all pretty happy that the game was played.

Update (5:30 PM): Steve is still very pessimistic about the chances of playing baseball in the Bronx tonight:
So far no changes to the forecast. Rain will continue to spread through the Bronx and become heavy at times.
Taking a look at the radar below, Steve is right. It doesn't look good. A delay at the onset of this game is pointless. MLB needs to decide whether they should risk starting the game with the high possibility of not being able to finish, or just postpone it. The conditions are only going to worsen, so a delay will be the wrong call. As it turns out, both managers and MLB will meet about the weather at 7 PM, according to Sam Borden.

Update (2:45 PM): Earlier today, during his chat, Steve mentioned the following that could be a gleam of hope for tonight's game being played:
If I was MLB right now, I'd pray for a STRONG mesoscale banding over northern New Jersey so the sinking air will kill precipitation over the Bronx. Otherwise, this weekend is not going to be favorable for baseball.
He further elaborated with the following:
If that banding develops, and I'm not saying that it 100% will, but if it does, then there is a chance (say 15%) that the rain will be light enough to play through this evening. The heavier and more concentrated the rain develops over northeastern New Jersey, the better chance for this to happen in the Bronx.
As of now, the rain still isn't pushing into the NYC area. The coastal storm is still expected to get cranking and dump rain on the Bronx, but until it does so, baseball will be played as planned. From reading Steve's comments above, there is at least a chance. We wouldn't feel comfortable lowering the postponement or delay status from "high," but there is a better chance of playing this game than there was this morning.

Previous post follows:

As expected, the lull between the two early season Nor'Easters allowed the Yankees to take a 1-0 ALCS lead on Friday night. Unfortunately, the rain returns today and will most likely cause a weather postponement for ALCS Game 2. On hand as always is Steve DiMartino of with the official forecast:
A strong coastal low is developing off the Delaware coast this afternoon and will move through the New Jersey coastal waters tonight. This coastal low is going to produce moderate to heavy rain over the Bronx tonight with a strong northeast wind around 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will be in the lower 40’s.

Game Delay Potential:
HIGH: I can already see how MLB will try to play this, expect a lengthy delay as the rain rolls into the Bronx.

Game Postponement:
HIGH: The rain will only get heavier as the evening continues. The combination of heavy rain and strong winds will likely prevent this game from being played.
If you are traveling to the game, it would behoove you to keep abreast of the situation all day. We will try to update when necessary but this is probably one of the easiest postponements to predict of the entire season. If we were traveling from outside of the 5 boroughs, we probably wouldn't bother heading to the game.

Hopefully the rain will subside by the end of the weekend, and the word is that the potential makeup game would be in the late afternoon on Sunday . However, some weather models are indicating that the rain is going to stick around all day on Sunday as well, putting that makeup time at risk. An ALCS weather nightmare is upon us and we'll just have to hope it doesn't affect the Yankees chances to advance to the World Series.

In other news, we forgot to post Steve's wind map in yesterday's game day weather post. As it turns out, his wind prediction was spot on and actually affected the game. Vlad Guerrero and Robinson Cano both had home runs taken away from them by the strong winds that were blowing in. If by some miracle, tonight's game is played, the winds will be similar:
Wind Direction This Evening

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