Joba Rules 2009 - How The Yankees Can Keep Joba Below 150 Innings And Win

In reading our copy of Baseball Prospectus 2009, we came across an interesting discussion in the Chicago White Sox' chapter about the potential to bring back the four-man starting rotation in Major League Baseball. Stat-heads have long pined for the return of the four-man rotation, since fifth starters are so often painfully below replacement level. Ozzie Guillen wasted too many starts on the fifth starter in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus broke down exactly how the White Sox could have done better with their pitching staff management.

The Yankees don't have the problem of a below replacement level pitcher anywhere in their rotation. What they do have is a young stud pitcher named Joba Chamberlain who can't throw many more than 150 innings in 2009 due to unfortunate injuries in 2008. That leaves the Yankees in a predicament that often devolves into a "Joba should go back to the bullpen" debate. That asinine sentiment aside, the Yankees can easily limit Joba to 150 innings by simply treating his spot in the rotation as if they have a scrubby fifth starter who they don't want to see the light of day.

By Baseball Prospectus' calculations, the White Sox fifth starter would have had to make only 24 starts in 2008 if they had skipped the fifth starter whenever off days permitted. We have not done the calculations for the 2009 Yankees schedule, but we can assume it will be around the same number. If we round up to 25 starts, and we are conservative by giving Joba the league average of 5.44 innings per start, that would leave him with 136 regular season innings. Considering that the Yankees are 6/5 odds to make the World Series, there is a strong likelihood that the Yankee will be playing October baseball, and Joba will be able to continue pitching throughout.

Joe Girardi has indicated that he wants Joba to make 30 starts, even mentioning that he has projected out all 162 games without skipping Joba's turn even once. Again using the conservative estimate of 5.44 innings per start, that would put Joba at 163 innings before the playoffs. After throwing only 100 IP in 2008, throwing 163, plus the playoffs would put Joba in serious danger of suffering an injury due to what is now known as the "Verducci Effect" in 2010. Beyond The Box Score recently had some interesting analysis of the "Verducci Effect."

Girardi has conceded that he will likely have to pull Joba after 5 innings in many starts if he plans on running him out to the mound 30 or more times. With a pitching staff featuring workhorses like CC Sabathia, Chien Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte, why not skip the fifth spot when possible instead of wearing out the bullpen every fifth day? Some will argue that young pitchers only suffer injuries because they are handled too carefully, but when you have a commodity as valuable as Joba Chamberlain, you can never be too careful. Read the full post, after the jump

Say it ain't so, Joba

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Texas Pitcher Massacre

First Hughes last year throwing a no-hitter and this year Wang in Houston and Joba in Arlington again. Read the full post, after the jump

What a difference a year makes

Imagine one year ago today, I told you that Phil Hughes, Ross Ohlendorf and Joba Chamberlain all pitched a couple of innings for the Yankees in a game on the previous night. First of all, you would be ecstatic that the young guns were getting a chance to shine. Next, you would wonder what crazy circumstances led to the pride of the farm turning into the core of the team. One thing would be certain - there is no way you come away from watching the game with those participants and have a sour taste in your mouth.

So, fast forward a year, and you know that all three of those guys DO play an integral role on the 2008 New York Yankees. All three pitched last night, and because of rain curtailing what should have been a bounce-back start for Phil, a terrible outing from Ohlendorf and a game-ending hit off of Joba, I am left feeling pretty bad about last night's game.

The White Sox should have been swept last night, but because Girardi was being justifiably careful with the very young Hughes, and because of a couple of disappointing outings from the other young guys, they let the sweep slip from their grasps.

We all pined for the Yankees to develop from within and have "home-grown talent" to root for again. Because of that, we'll have to take the good with the bad.

Talk about it in the NYYSI Forums! Read the full post, after the jump

Rotoworld.com showing their Red Sox bias ONCE AGAIN

Shocking, I know - but rotoworld.com once again showed off their Red Sox bias yesterday. Hey rotoworld - you guys are a great aggregate of fantasy sports NEWS... Nobody (except maybe the ignorant portion of the Red Sox fan base) wants to hear your opinion on what you think players may think about other players.

Here is the quote in question:

Joba Chamberlain pitched two innings out of the pen and allowed two runs against the Twins on Wednesday.

It was the first official outing for Joba, who was perfect for two innings in a college game last week. He gave up a two-run homer to Garrett Jones today and then drilled Matt Tolbert on the ankle with his very next pitch, earning himself some nasty looks from the Twins dugout. Chamberlain seems like an awfully nice guy off the field, but after what happened with Kevin Youkilis last year, he may be on his way to earning himself a reputation on the field.

Yea, OK guys. Joba Chamberlain was throwing at someone named Matt Tolbert after giving up a HR to a some dude named Garrett Jones. Lets break it down like this:

- It was a SPRING TRAINING GAME
- Matt Tolbert is a NON-roster invitee to Spring Training.
- Joba only threw 20 out of 36 pitches for strikes in his outing - he was wild and out of sync all day.

So fantasy players of the world, I have some quality information to provide, directly from rotoworld.com: don't bother drafting any Yankees for your fantasy baseball teams this year. They are awful people with bad intentions in life and are all going to hell (we all know that is what matters most in fantasy baseball... er... wait a second).

Yankee pitchers will do mean things like throw balls at non-roster invitees to Spring Training and even worse at Kevin Youkilis during the regular season. Don't even get me started on the Yankee batters. They try to kill birds during batting practice. The squirrel on the foul pole in right field? I'll say only this - you think it is a coincidence that he is only up there when lefties are coming up to bat? Evil Empire.

Talk about it in the NYYSI Forums! Read the full post, after the jump