Why I Hate The Joba Rules 2009 v 2.0

This morning, I woke up to find that my buddy Joe Pawlikowski had called me out on something I said regarding the new Joba rules. An excerpt from his post on River Avenue Blues:

Ross of New Stadium Insider commented that “the Joba rules keep on getting lamer and lamer” on his. Plenty more fans chimed in with similar comments. Apparently the Yankees decision to limit the workload of their prized young pitcher isn’t going over well with the fan base.

Many of these same people criticized the Yankees when the plan was to spread out Joba’s starts over the remainder of the season. This brings to the fore an apt question: what, then, are they supposed to do? If the Yankees aren’t going to shorten Joba’s starts or spread them out, then what options do they have?

1) Pitch Joba as normal and shut him down when he reaches his prescribed workload
2) Pitch him normally without regard to prior workload

I'll admit that I had that reaction, spur of the moment, while I was at the game, and I relayed the message via Twitter. When you are in attendance and Joba is on the bump, you want to see him go more than three innings! I hadn't realized that the Yankees were planning on cutting his starts that short under these new and improved (?) Joba rules, and it was frustrating. However, it wasn't all just emotional reaction - I have good reason for my disdain of the new plan.

My major issue with Joba Rules 2009 v2.0 is that they are not helping him develop into a better starting pitcher. As Joe pointed out a couple of weeks ago, the Yankees have a history of putting Joba's development on the back burner to better suit the team's needs. This iteration of the Joba rules are no different. If Joba knows he will be pulled after a predetermined number of innings, he is likely going to crank it up in that last inning of work - something he never would do as a starter. I don't have PitchFX data to back this up, but Joba's only strikeout came on the third out of his final inning of work on Sunday. I Would love to see if "reliever Joba" made an appearance in that frame. If he's going to throw three innings per outing for the rest of the season, why not just put him in the bullpen as a middle reliever ? Either way, Joba isn't going to develop his pitching style as a starter.

I am definitely a proponent of limiting Joba's workload in order to make sure that he doesn't have arm troubles down the road. He already has a shaky injury history and the Yankees are counting on 30 or more starts from him in 2010 and beyond. Therefore, my choice would be Joba Rules 2009 v 1.0 - that is, skip some starts in order to limit his innings. While Joba apparently voiced some concern over the long layoffs following a couple of bad starts, he certainly wasn't complaining about extra rest after his All-Star Break hiatus and subsequent run of excellent starts. Starting pitchers are known to be creatures of habit, loving to pitch on their regular rest. It was understandable for a grumpy veteran like Mike Mussina to be stubborn about not pitching on regular, but Joba is still young, and needs to learn how to deal with his body when it has extra rest.

More than likely, Joba isn't going to be needed as a starting pitcher in the first round of a playoff series in 2009. However, if the Yankees advance to the League Championship Series and beyond, they will probably utilize his services as a starter. Wouldn't these long layoffs during regular season starts be perfect training for what Joba might deal with in the postseason?

These 3 inning starts are doing nothing for the Yankees, and they are doing nothing for Joba's development. In short, these Joba rules keep on getting lamer and lamer. Read the full post, after the jump

Why Does Everything Involving Yankee Pitching Always Come Back To The Joba To The Bullpen Debate?

We have already made our opinion on the Joba to the bullpen debate very clear. Until he proves that he can't stay healthy, he should remain in the rotation. However, whenever anything notable occurs with Yankee pitching, the Joba to the bullpen talk immediately commences.

Wang has to go on the DL? Joba to the bullpen. Bullpen struggles? Joba to the bullpen. Phil Hughes makes an impressive 2009 debut? Joba to the bullpen. Ugh.

Fellow blog author, Bobby (formerly Fake IPK), emailed this morning with the following question:

So other than me picking him up in fantasy, what's been the reaction to Hughes so far? Are people saying that it's going to push Joba into the 'pen?

Since this question is likely flying through multiple factions of cyberspace, here is our answer - Only a fool would think that Joba is going back to the pen based on one great Hughes start. The general reaction is tempered excitement. Hughes can obviously have a huge impact on the 2009 Yankees, especially given the wait and see approach with Chien Ming Wang's availability as a viable major leage starter.

That being said, if Hughes is dominant (2007 Joba in the bullpen type of dominant), Wang shows promise in rehab, Joba is only giving 5 IP per start and the bullpen continues to falter, I can see the Yankees being forced into the Joba to the bullpen move.

So, what are some alternatives to simply moving Joba back to the bullpen IF the Yankees are faced with the highly enviable situation of 6 viable major league pitchers and only 5 spots in the rotation? For one, they could go with an unlikely and unorthodox 6 man rotation, alternatively skipping Hughes and Joba to keep their innings down. This probably won't happen.

But what if the Yankees really thought outside of the box and decided to move Chien Ming Wang to the bullpen? With Wang's repetoire mainly featuring a heavy sinker, the Yankees may have the 2000's version of Ramiro Mendoza on their hands - a guy who can come into the game in the middle innings and get huge double plays and save the game (even if a stupid stat isn't dedicated to it).

There are obviously obstacles that need to be overcome before making a switch like this. For one, Wang is an icon in his homeland of Taiwan, and it would likely be seen as a slap in the face if he was converted into a middle reliever. Wang showed signs of this when he refused to admit problems with his mechanics following the 22-4 Yankee Stadium debacle. Next is that Wang does have an injury history (shoulder) dating back to the beginning of the new millenium and tinkering with his role on the team might not be the best choice. Finally, the guy has already won 19 games twice in his relatively short career as a starter and he is only 28 years old.

We're not arguing with the idea that Joba would be the best reliever out of the 6 Yankee starters - he has already proven his dominance in that arena. Our argument is that out of the 6, Wang would be the least valuable in the rotation going forward (outside of Pettite, who is obviously not a bullpen candidate). The easy solution would be to send Hughes back to the minors, but we are operating under the assumption that Hughes continues to be dominant (we know - it's only one start).

So, hopefully we have turned the Joba to the bullpen debate into a Chien Ming Wang to the bullpen debate. That might not be better, but at least it is something new. Do any of the tens of NSI readers have an opinion? We just realized after writing this post that River Avenue Blues discussed Phil Hughes to the bullpen. Let us know your thoughts, in the comments.
Read the full post, after the jump

Joba Rules 2009 - How The Yankees Can Keep Joba Below 150 Innings And Win

In reading our copy of Baseball Prospectus 2009, we came across an interesting discussion in the Chicago White Sox' chapter about the potential to bring back the four-man starting rotation in Major League Baseball. Stat-heads have long pined for the return of the four-man rotation, since fifth starters are so often painfully below replacement level. Ozzie Guillen wasted too many starts on the fifth starter in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus broke down exactly how the White Sox could have done better with their pitching staff management.

The Yankees don't have the problem of a below replacement level pitcher anywhere in their rotation. What they do have is a young stud pitcher named Joba Chamberlain who can't throw many more than 150 innings in 2009 due to unfortunate injuries in 2008. That leaves the Yankees in a predicament that often devolves into a "Joba should go back to the bullpen" debate. That asinine sentiment aside, the Yankees can easily limit Joba to 150 innings by simply treating his spot in the rotation as if they have a scrubby fifth starter who they don't want to see the light of day.

By Baseball Prospectus' calculations, the White Sox fifth starter would have had to make only 24 starts in 2008 if they had skipped the fifth starter whenever off days permitted. We have not done the calculations for the 2009 Yankees schedule, but we can assume it will be around the same number. If we round up to 25 starts, and we are conservative by giving Joba the league average of 5.44 innings per start, that would leave him with 136 regular season innings. Considering that the Yankees are 6/5 odds to make the World Series, there is a strong likelihood that the Yankee will be playing October baseball, and Joba will be able to continue pitching throughout.

Joe Girardi has indicated that he wants Joba to make 30 starts, even mentioning that he has projected out all 162 games without skipping Joba's turn even once. Again using the conservative estimate of 5.44 innings per start, that would put Joba at 163 innings before the playoffs. After throwing only 100 IP in 2008, throwing 163, plus the playoffs would put Joba in serious danger of suffering an injury due to what is now known as the "Verducci Effect" in 2010. Beyond The Box Score recently had some interesting analysis of the "Verducci Effect."

Girardi has conceded that he will likely have to pull Joba after 5 innings in many starts if he plans on running him out to the mound 30 or more times. With a pitching staff featuring workhorses like CC Sabathia, Chien Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte, why not skip the fifth spot when possible instead of wearing out the bullpen every fifth day? Some will argue that young pitchers only suffer injuries because they are handled too carefully, but when you have a commodity as valuable as Joba Chamberlain, you can never be too careful. Read the full post, after the jump