Friday, August 28, 2009

UPDATED: NSI Game Day Weather - Yankees vs. White Sox 8/28/09 - Rainout Possible Saturday

UPDATE (Saturday morning 8/29 9:00 AM Update): The Yankees dodged a bullet last night. Lets hope they can do the same today! Here is what Steve has to say:

The remnants of Tropical Storm Danny will move to the southeast of the Bronx with periods of heavy rain through the early afternoon. Rain will taper off to scattered showers as the afternoon progresses. Winds will be from the east around 10 to 20 mph at the start of the game and back to the northwest as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures will range from the upper 70’s to lower 80’s through the game.

Game Delay Potential: High: With waves of heavy rain, a delay in the game is significantly possible. As the afternoon wares on, the potential for drier conditions will increase, especially towards the evening.

Game Postponement: Moderate: The Yankees may have dodged the rain on Friday night, but may not be so lucky today. Periods of heavy rain may prevent the start of the game and may force a postponement to the game.

Rest Of The Series: On Sunday, showers will linger through the afternoon with a threat for a delay in the game as a strong cold front moves through the Bonx. Temperatures will range cool, in the mid to upper 70’s through Saturday’s game and upper 70’s to lower 80’s for Sunday’s game.

Wind Direction This Afternoon

Wind Direction This Afternoon

UPDATE (6:00 PM): Steve just checked in with the following bad news
Very heavy rain is moving north from central New Jersey and will only intensify as the evening progresses. In short, those going to the stadium tonight will end up wet and likely with
UPDATE (3:00 PM): The following comes from Steve:
Expect steady light rain to continue on and off through the early evening. The heavier rain expected after 8PM is developing over southern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey and will continue to move north. I think there is a high threat for at least a lengthy delay and a moderate chance for a postponement.

A lot of moisture is heading this way from the disturbance over the Southeast and from Danny now through Sunday morning.
We have changed the color codes below in response.

We return from our hiatus to issue the following forecast:




But seriously, the White Sox last trip to the Bronx for the '09 season is going to be quite wet, so we have Steve from NYNJPAWeather.com on board to guide us through the raindrops:

A warm front will move north towards the Bronx this evening with broken to overcast cloud cover and scattered showers through the game. The rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity through the evening. Winds will be from the east around 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will range from the upper 60’s to lower 70’s through the game.

Game Delay Potential: Moderate: While I expect the game to start on time, waves of showers will likely cause a delay in the game towards the later innings. The heaviest showers will remain to the south of the Bronx through much of the evening, but will move northwards towards the end of the evening. HIGH (see 3:00 PM update above)

Game Postponement:Low: The threat of a game postponement is low given how light the precipitation is expected to be. The conditions will not warrant a suspension in play, however conditions will not be comfortable. Moderate: (see above 3:00 PM update). A postponement in the game is possible if the warm front stalls just south of the Bronx, over parts of New York and Queens County, which will produce a constant training of showers over the Bronx.

Rest Of The Series: On Saturday, heavy rain can be expected as the remnants of Danny moves to the east of the Bronx. A postponement of this game is highly likely given the potential for widespread heavy rain and windy conditions. On Sunday, showers will linger through the afternoon with a threat for a delay in the game as a strong cold front moves through the Bonx. Temperatures will range cool, in the mid to upper 70’s through Saturday’s game and upper 70’s to lower 80’s for Sunday’s game.

Wind Direction This Afternoon

Wind Direction Tonight

According to Steve, tonight's game should be played, as the rain will be more showery in nature during the evening hours. Lets hope.

Looking ahead, a rain out on Saturday would leave the Yankees in an interesting quandary. It would be in their best interests to play a doubleheader on Sunday to avoid late-season travel issues. However, ESPN has the exclusive broadcast rights after 7 PM on Sundays, so they would have to consider the rare single-admission doubleheader. Back in June, we wondered what it would take for the Yankees to schedule a single-admission doubleheader. This could be the perfect storm of circumstances (no pun intended). If the Yankees do opt for a single-admission doubleheader on Sunday, tickets for that game would likely be valid, and people holding tickets for Saturday's game would be offered refunds. It would be rather unpleasant for our friends in the Yankees ticket office, and for people holding Saturday's tickets.

The Yankees and White Sox do have common off days on September 10 and September 24, but both cause issues. For September 10, the White Sox would be forced to travel from Chicago to Los Angeles via New York City - never an enjoyable experience. On September 24, the Yankees would have to play on the off day after a west coast trip, and the White Sox would have to travel to New York for one game in the middle of a home stand.

The overriding theme here is that the Yankees are going to be forced to do all they can to get this weekend's games in. If raindrops are falling from the sky and are in the forecast, don't assume the games are going to be canceled - it is more likely that there are going to be lengthy delays.

Comments (4)

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How can I find out if the game is postponed or not...is there an official Yankee's game status source of info?
1 reply · active 813 weeks ago
<a href="http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/nyy/ballpark/weather_update.jsp
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/nyy/ballpark/weath... />
http://twitter.com/YankeesWeather
I was at the game Saturday and there were LOTS of empty seats. Apparently, lots of fans fell for Steve's "high probability of a rain delay" forecast and decided to stay away. In fact, there was no rain during the game at all (aside from a bit of mist during the 8th inning). The tarp was off the field when I got there at 12:30 PM, the game started on time, and was over before 4 PM.

I am a professional meteorologist as well. And I had to come from central Connecticut for the game. When I awoke on Saturday morning, the first thing I did was look at the weather radar. It was obvious then, that the back edge of the precipitation would clear the Bronx by noontime. I left home at 10:30 AM feeling quite confident (in spite of the fact that it was raining in central CT at that hour) that the game would not be postponed, or even delayed.

My point is that sometimes, these advance forecasts do your fans a disservice. In this case, given the uncertain status of the track of T.S. Danny, this forecast was a complete bust.
1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
Steve,

I highly doubt that it was because of Steve's forecast for NSI that fans stayed away. We don't have the reach. All week, forecasters were hyping 2-4 inches of rain on Saturday - I'm pretty sure that affected the attendance on Saturday.

We all know how fickle weather is, and nobody expects any meteorologist to be correct 100% of the time. Perhaps we will reevaluate the color coding for delay/cancelations because so many factors affect those decisions. I think that Steve has done a pretty good job this season, but one missed forecast will always bring out the naysayers.

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